A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in universities but scarcely any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unity or the status quo. Each authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social figures, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should join the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
